Fri, Dec 31, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Rangers 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 03 | 212 | 16 | 02 | 1 | 423 |
| TBL | 110 | 110 | 18 | 00 | 0 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:21TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 5:30NYRAlexis LafrenièreUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 14:30NYRBarclay GoodrowSHAssists: Greg McKegg · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 17:31TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Brayden Point, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 13:35NYRBarclay GoodrowAssists: K'Andre Miller, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 18:03TBLCorey PerryAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 2. NYR Kaapo Kakko stopped
- 3. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 4. NYR Artemi Panarin stopped
- 5. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 6. NYR Mika Zibanejad scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:11TBLJan Rutta: Holding2 min
- P1 10:22NYRDryden Hunt: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:15NYRRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:12NYRMika Zibanejad: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:09TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P2 12:43NYRKaapo Kakko: Interference2 min
- P2 19:14TBLCorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:59TBLBoris Katchouk: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:59NYRDryden Hunt: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:46TBLMikhail Sergachev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goodrow won the faceoff against Bellemare
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestReaves – McKegg – Goodrow2:27
xG 0.15–0.06 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Strome – Hunt – Panarin4:51
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Hunt5:03
xG 0.09–0.20 (30%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko10:49
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hajek – Lundkvist9:50
xG 0.35–0.60 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Trouba – Miller14:50
xG 0.10–0.38 (21%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Fox16:17
xG 0.42–0.89 (32%)attempts 7–20goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Point – Colton12:57
xG 0.63–0.26 (71%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Joseph10:37
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Nash – Katchouk – Fortier6:03
xG 0.26–0.07 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare10:04
xG 0.14–0.35 (28%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta2:53
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev9:44
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh3:20
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).