Fri, Dec 31, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
Edmonton Oilers 5, New Jersey Devils 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 213 | 19 | 214 | 01 | 537 |
| NJD | 314 | 011 | 213 | 13 | 641 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38NJDJack HughesPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 2:48EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan McLeod, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 3:05NJDNico HischierAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 6:00EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Slater Koekkoek, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P1 11:10NJDDawson MercerAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 7:57EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Duncan Keith, Kailer Yamamoto · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 5:14NJDJanne KuokkanenAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Dawson Mercer · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 7:06EDMDevin ShoreAssists: Ryan McLeod, William Lagesson · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–4
- P3 8:18EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–4
- P3 19:28NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–5
- OT 2:55NJDJack HughesGWGAssists: Jesper Bratt, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.03 xG5–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 1:27EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:11EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:13NJDYegor Sharangovich: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Hughes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto11:56
xG 0.60–0.33 (65%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Shore – McDavid – McLeod2:20
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Shore – Foegele – McLeod2:20
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi2:01
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Ceci16:33
xG 1.24–0.63 (66%)attempts 29–13goals 2–0
- Nurse – Bouchard5:33
xG 0.13–0.29 (30%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Koekkoek – Bouchard5:12
xG 0.11–0.32 (26%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Kuokkanen – Mercer10:30
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Zacha – Hischier – Boqvist10:48
xG 0.63–0.39 (62%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Bratt – Sharangovich – Hughes13:05
xG 0.86–0.75 (53%)attempts 26–18goals 0–2
- Bastian – McLeod – Studenic8:36
xG 0.22–0.61 (26%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Smith12:19
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Severson – Siegenthaler20:10
xG 1.01–0.94 (52%)attempts 21–16goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Graves16:02
xG 0.47–0.88 (35%)attempts 16–27goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).