Sun, Feb 13, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 4, Dallas Stars 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 213 | 07 | 210 | 430 |
| DAL | 05 | 014 | 04 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:31COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 11:51COLNazem KadriAssists: Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.23 xG2–0
- P3 13:50COLNicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Tyson Jost, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 18:10COLGabriel LandeskogENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.79 xG4–0
Penalties (4)
- P2 5:45COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:22COLCale Makar: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:35COLNathan MacKinnon: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:00DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – O'Connor – Newhook4:09
xG 0.19–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Helm – Aube-Kubel – Jost4:23
xG 0.05–0.04 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:41
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin10:51
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Makar3:42
xG 0.86–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Toews – Makar13:29
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard2:15
xG 0.06–0.01 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Raffl – Kiviranta10:08
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Radulov – Kero – Peterson5:39
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson6:55
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Benn – Seguin4:05
xG 0.01–0.11 (12%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Lindell – Heiskanen2:26
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Lindell – Harley4:59
xG 0.08–0.05 (62%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell10:23
xG 0.26–0.29 (48%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).