Fri, Dec 31, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Anaheim Ducks 1, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 04 | 06 | 16 | 116 |
| VGK | 216 | 118 | 011 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:15VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Ben Hutton · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 18:25VGKAdam BrooksGWGAssists: Dylan Coghlan, Chandler Stephenson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 4:39VGKMattias JanmarkUnassisted · Snap, 0.24 xG0–3
- P3 19:48ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Sonny Milano, Vinni Lettieri · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–3
Penalties (19)
- P1 14:24ANAJamie Drysdale: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:17ANANicolas Deslauriers: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:53ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:04VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:04ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:04ANANicolas Deslauriers: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:10ANADerek Grant: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:10ANASam Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:10VGKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:10VGKMichael Amadio: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:10ANASam Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:10ANADerek Grant: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:10VGKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:21ANAJosh Manson: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P3 7:08ANAHampus Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:37ANANicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:38VGKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 18:38ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:38VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Getzlaf – Milano – Terry2:43
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Rakell – Lundeström3:51
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Terry7:50
xG 0.17–0.33 (34%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Grant – Silfverberg – Lundeström6:28
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 1–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – Lindholm2:17
xG 0.07–0.16 (29%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Manson – Larsson11:15
xG 0.39–0.58 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Benoit11:34
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Roy8:19
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:00
xG 0.64–0.28 (70%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Stephenson – Janmark8:41
xG 0.34–0.31 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Amadio – Brooks2:02
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTheodore – Whitecloud17:28
xG 0.94–0.42 (69%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- McNabb – Coghlan9:00
xG 0.58–0.14 (81%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hutton11:32
xG 0.78–0.46 (63%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).