Sat, Jan 1, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 3, Boston Bruins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 13 | 29 | 09 | 01 | 322 |
| BOS | 013 | 113 | 214 | 11 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:33BUFVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Brett Murray, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:47BOSCraig SmithAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 11:32BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Alex Tuch, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 19:11BUFAlex TuchPPAssists: Peyton Krebs, Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 3:24BOSNick FolignoAssists: Jake DeBrusk · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 4:49BOSTaylor HallAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 0:34BOSCharlie CoyleGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:13BUFAlex Tuch: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:08BUFAnders Bjork: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:31BUFJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:19BOSErik Haula: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:33BOSTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:17BUFAlex Tuch: Interference2 min
- P2 18:25BOSCraig Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:27BOSCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Okposo – Eakin – Asplund3:15
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Eakin – Hinostroza – Murray7:34
xG 0.03–0.16 (15%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Hayden – Bjork – Asplund5:17
xG 0.05–0.21 (20%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson8:18
xG 0.18–0.71 (20%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Prow – Dahlin2:04
xG 0.03–0.01 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Fitzgerald2:00
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Butcher – Fitzgerald10:41
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith12:23
xG 0.77–0.23 (77%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Foligno – Coyle – DeBrusk7:15
xG 0.50–0.04 (92%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Haula – Hall – Pastrnak9:00
xG 0.50–0.09 (85%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Lazar – Nosek – Frederic6:58
xG 0.45–0.13 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Carlo13:05
xG 1.38–0.18 (88%)attempts 22–8goals 0–0
- Forbort – Clifton12:02
xG 0.61–0.22 (74%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy14:11
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).