Sat, Jan 1, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Edmonton Oilers 2, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 06 | 211 | 02 | 00 | 219 |
| NYI | 18 | 05 | 114 | 12 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:40NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Kieffer Bellows, Noah Dobson · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 0:31EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Duncan Keith, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 17:13EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 2:23NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Austin Czarnik, Ross Johnston · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 3:52NYINoah DobsonGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:42EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:26EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:42EDMTyson Barrie: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:42NYIKieffer Bellows: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi13:10
xG 1.07–0.51 (68%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Turris – Foegele – McLeod8:50
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Ryan – Benson9:25
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Shore – Draisaitl – Yamamoto15:14
xG 0.43–0.69 (38%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bouchard21:40
xG 1.49–0.25 (86%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Barrie – Koekkoek10:22
xG 0.62–0.70 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Keith – Ceci18:49
xG 0.27–0.76 (26%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Barzal13:58
xG 0.66–0.58 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Parise – Pageau – Bellows4:57
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Parise – Johnston – Czarnik5:13
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas12:43
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Dobson19:04
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Chara – Mayfield2:04
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Greene – Pelech2:09
xG 0.07–0.40 (15%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).