Sat, Jan 1, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 015 | 111 | 012 | 138 |
| NSH | 37 | 212 | 16 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Matt Duchene, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 5:53NSHRyan JohansenGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mattias Ekholm · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 19:13NSHNick CousinsPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Philip Tomasino · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–3
- P2 0:28NSHTanner JeannotAssists: Colton Sissons, Yakov Trenin · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–4
- P2 5:34NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.06 xG0–5
- P2 17:25CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Calvin de Haan, Henrik Borgstrom · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
- P3 0:53NSHTanner JeannotAssists: Matt Benning, Yakov Trenin · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:44CHISeth Jones: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:44NSHMichael McCarron: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 9:28NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min
- P1 13:19NSHPhilippe Myers: Interference2 min
- P1 17:27CHIDylan Strome: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:23CHIBrandon Hagel: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:54CHIKirby Dach: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:13NSHMichael McCarron: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:32NSHPhilippe Myers: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dach won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKhaira – Carpenter – Strome2:15
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Kurashev – Dach2:51
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Strome – DeBrincat – Dach3:19
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Borgstrom – Kurashev5:16
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Jones10:04
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Gustafsson – Stillman8:51
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- McCabe – Jones2:04
xG 0.05–0.02 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg13:17
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Cousins – McCarron – Tomasino8:39
xG 0.14–0.25 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot9:48
xG 0.46–0.60 (43%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
- Johansen – Kunin – Tolvanen9:40
xG 0.08–0.25 (26%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Myers2:41
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Benning2:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Myers2:01
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).