Sun, Jan 2, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 5, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 115 | 18 | 314 | 537 |
| DET | 16 | 010 | 08 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:28DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 14:47BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Craig Smith, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 7:37BOSErik HaulaGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 5:59BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Taylor Hall, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 7:55BOSTrent FredericAssists: Mike Reilly, Tomas Nosek · Slap, 0.32 xG4–1
- P3 10:40BOSTomas NosekAssists: Oskar Steen, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.15 xG5–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:13DETRobby Fabbri: Interference2 min
- P1 4:20BOSTomas Nosek: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:32BOSNick Foligno: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:59BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:59DETVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:59BOSBrad Marchand: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:59DETVladislav Namestnikov: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:24DETSam Gagner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:24BOSJeremy Swayman: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:47BOSTrent Frederic: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:50BOSJake DeBrusk: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:01DETDanny DeKeyser: Holding2 min
- P3 13:15DETVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Marchand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith7:03
xG 0.94–0.10 (90%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Nosek – Frederic – Steen7:35
xG 0.39–0.18 (69%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Haula – Hall – Pastrnak7:37
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Foligno – Coyle – DeBrusk8:09
xG 0.19–0.61 (24%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy11:55
xG 1.13–0.25 (82%)attempts 17–5goals 3–0
- Reilly – Clifton3:34
xG 0.55–0.03 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Forbort – Clifton9:46
xG 0.62–0.38 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond11:56
xG 0.47–0.27 (64%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Gagner – Rowney – Veleno5:44
xG 0.02–0.17 (11%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Erne – Rasmussen – Zadina5:47
xG 0.18–0.36 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
- Namestnikov – Fabbri – Suter6:18
xG 0.29–0.85 (26%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Seider13:47
xG 0.89–0.63 (59%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Staal – Hronek12:16
xG 0.23–1.07 (18%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
- Oesterle – Lindstrom13:12
xG 0.12–1.10 (10%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).