Sun, Jan 2, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 2, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 112 | 113 | 06 | 231 |
| COL | 012 | 112 | 312 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:55ANASam CarrickAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 3:22ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Maxime Comtois, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 11:47COLDevon ToewsPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 3:19COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 18:49COLLogan O'ConnorGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 19:28COLMikko RantanenENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.59 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:31ANAJakob Silfverberg: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:30COLJ.T. Compher: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:37COLSamuel Girard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 10:11ANADerek Grant: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:47ANAJosh Manson: Elbowing2 min
- P2 14:34COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:34ANAMaxime Comtois: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:58ANASam Steel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:34ANATroy Terry: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Grant
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMilano – Steel – Lettieri6:00
xG 0.38–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Terry – Comtois – Lundeström10:52
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Carrick – Robinson7:05
xG 0.23–0.10 (71%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Grant – Silfverberg – Rakell9:21
xG 0.28–0.81 (25%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Benoit8:25
xG 1.01–0.10 (91%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Drysdale15:26
xG 0.30–0.44 (41%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Fowler – Manson15:49
xG 0.49–0.80 (38%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:11
xG 0.90–0.27 (77%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Helm – Jost – O'Connor2:20
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Helm – MacDermid – Jost2:34
xG 0.07–0.03 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Compher7:57
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Byram2:08
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard2:04
xG 0.20–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar14:21
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).