Thu, Feb 10, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 5, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 211 | 28 | 14 | 523 |
| MTL | 010 | 218 | 016 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:04WSHJoe SnivelyAssists: Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 5:24WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Lars Eller, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 3:40WSHCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Martin Fehérváry, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 4:09MTLRem PitlickAssists: Josh Anderson, Kale Clague · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–1
- P2 5:18WSHJoe SnivelyAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 15:58MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Tyler Toffoli · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 18:45WSHTom WilsonENAssists: Joe Snively, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Backhand, 0.74 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:24MTLBen Chiarot: Interference2 min
- P1 9:56WSHDmitry Orlov: Interference2 min
- P2 8:03WSHNicklas Backstrom: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:08MTLJake Evans: Holding2 min
- P2 14:56WSHLars Eller: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:40WSHMartin Fehérváry: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:50WSHBrett Leason: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:30MTLChris Wideman: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Wilson – Snively7:54
xG 0.42–0.09 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Eller – Leason – McMichael7:25
xG 0.24–0.24 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway11:00
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Backstrom – Sheary – Sprong8:09
xG 0.30–0.48 (39%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – van Riemsdyk7:18
xG 0.52–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–2goals 3–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry13:48
xG 0.51–0.54 (48%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Jensen – van Riemsdyk3:59
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Evans – Pitlick11:22
xG 0.90–0.47 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Armia – Poehling – Caufield4:54
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lehkonen – Suzuki8:39
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Byron – Hoffman – Gallagher6:44
xG 0.12–0.31 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Clague4:00
xG 0.42–0.05 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Clague2:16
xG 0.28–0.02 (94%)attempts 2–2goals 1–1
- Petry – Chiarot2:12
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).