Tue, Jan 4, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Calgary Flames 2, Florida Panthers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 214 | 016 | 019 | 249 |
| FLA | 316 | 121 | 28 | 645 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58FLAPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.39 xG0–1
- P1 7:03CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Oliver Kylington · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 10:04CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Mikael Backlund, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P1 13:01FLAAnthony DuclairAssists: Gustav Forsling, Brandon Montour · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P1 18:51FLAJoe ThorntonPPGWGAssists: Brandon Montour, Carter Verhaeghe · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 19:43FLARyan LombergAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 5:47FLAPatric HornqvistUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 13:04FLALucas CarlssonAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:52CGYNoah Hanifin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:14CGYBrett Ritchie: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:56FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:40FLAAnton Lundell: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:02CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Backlund – Coleman5:30
xG 0.64–0.16 (80%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Lucic – Mangiapane – Dube6:37
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Monahan – Mangiapane2:06
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk14:22
xG 1.21–1.36 (47%)attempts 20–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Zadorov16:10
xG 2.74–0.64 (81%)attempts 29–17goals 1–1
- Tanev – Kylington15:57
xG 0.87–0.86 (50%)attempts 17–19goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Andersson15:36
xG 0.62–1.21 (34%)attempts 13–23goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Mamin8:53
xG 1.19–0.41 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Mamin – Lundell2:41
xG 0.05–0.29 (15%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen9:06
xG 0.06–0.41 (12%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Lundell11:03
xG 0.78–1.18 (40%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad15:13
xG 1.45–0.86 (63%)attempts 25–15goals 0–1
- Montour – Forsling2:21
xG 0.25–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 2–0
- Gudas – Forsling16:18
xG 0.39–1.10 (26%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).