Tue, Jan 4, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Nashville Predators 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 211 | 15 | 326 |
| VGK | 08 | 014 | 221 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:41NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 7:01NSHYakov TreninAssists: Philippe Myers · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 6:08NSHFilip ForsbergGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 12:01VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Brayden McNabb, Evgenii Dadonov · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 18:14VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, William Karlsson · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:49VGKWilliam Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:39NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:39VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:02NSHRoman Josi: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:41NSHNick Cousins: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:41VGKEvgenii Dadonov: Embellishment2 min
- P3 7:06NSHMattias Ekholm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:25VGKJonathan Marchessault: Interference2 min
- P3 8:21NSHRoman Josi: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Johansen – Kunin – Tolvanen10:59
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Cousins – McCarron – Luff6:47
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg11:16
xG 0.35–0.49 (42%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot8:42
xG 0.23–0.38 (37%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Myers10:29
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Josi – Carrier14:05
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Benning16:18
xG 0.41–0.65 (39%)attempts 13–17goals 2–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Karlsson – Janmark3:15
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:33
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Amadio – Howden – Patrick8:14
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Janmark – Kolesar – Roy4:51
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Theodore7:19
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Hutton – Coghlan2:41
xG 0.03–0.01 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- McNabb – Coghlan9:37
xG 0.18–0.22 (46%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).