Thu, Jan 6, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
San Jose Sharks 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 311 | 05 | 05 | 321 |
| BUF | 08 | 19 | 122 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:27SJSMatt NietoAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Nick Bonino · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:44SJSTimo MeierAssists: Tomas Hertl, Mario Ferraro · Slap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 17:24SJSTomas HertlGWGAssists: Alexander Barabanov · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 7:56BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 18:15BUFZemgus GirgensonsPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:20BUFJohn Hayden: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:20SJSJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:58BUFJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:44SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:03SJSAndrew Cogliano: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:51SJSJaycob Megna: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestDahlen – Gregor – Weatherby8:20
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Viel – Gadjovich – Reedy4:49
xG 0.25–0.05 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hertl – Meier – Barabanov13:52
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
- Cogliano – Bonino – Nieto12:36
xG 0.14–0.39 (26%)attempts 4–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Simek16:41
xG 0.72–0.15 (82%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Burns – Ferraro18:52
xG 0.46–0.60 (44%)attempts 11–26goals 2–1
- Megna – Merkley12:44
xG 0.19–0.42 (32%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHinostroza – Asplund – Cozens13:00
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson11:48
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 18–9goals 1–2
- Eakin – Hayden – MacInnis7:15
xG 0.13–0.22 (36%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Girgensons – Murray9:32
xG 0.08–0.33 (19%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Butcher14:53
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Jokiharju – Dahlin19:16
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 28–12goals 0–0
- Miller – Dahlin2:13
xG 0.05–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).