Mon, Feb 21, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 012 | 214 | 237 |
| MTL | 28 | 311 | 05 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:58MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Jeff Petry, Cole Caufield · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 19:10MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Josh Anderson · Slap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 0:38MTLMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 15:58MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 17:56MTLRem PitlickAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–5
- P3 4:43TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Morgan Rielly, Ondrej Kase · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 5:28TORPierre EngvallAssists: Jason Spezza, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:52MTLBrett Kulak: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:12TORJustin Holl: Holding2 min
- P2 12:59MTLKale Clague: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:31TORJason Spezza: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:31MTLNick Suzuki: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:31TORJustin Holl: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Simmonds – Engvall8:34
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews14:22
xG 0.82–0.81 (50%)attempts 25–9goals 0–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander9:37
xG 0.31–0.56 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
- Kase – Kampf – Mikheyev11:11
xG 0.32–0.94 (25%)attempts 6–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Dermott10:16
xG 0.45–0.27 (62%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Dermott – Liljegren4:28
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Holl – Rielly2:11
xG 0.10–0.01 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Suzuki – Caufield12:27
xG 0.92–0.51 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 3–0
- Lehkonen – Pezzetta – Poehling5:34
xG 0.32–0.06 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Lehkonen – Evans – Pitlick2:34
xG 0.12–0.11 (50%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Gallagher – Dauphin10:38
xG 0.30–0.44 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak16:50
xG 1.04–0.45 (70%)attempts 16–14goals 3–1
- Wideman – Clague11:09
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Romanov17:31
xG 0.95–0.89 (52%)attempts 14–26goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).