Thu, Jan 6, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Calgary Flames 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 05 | 114 | 127 |
| TBL | 014 | 113 | 36 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:21TBLCorey PerryAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 2:52TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 10:10TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 10:24TBLAlex KillornAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 15:54CGYDillon DubeAssists: Sean Monahan, Oliver Kylington · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 10:08TBLMathieu Joseph: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:08CGYNoah Hanifin: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:08TBLMathieu Joseph: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:56CGYBrad Richardson: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 14:41CGYBrad Richardson: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:41CGYBrad Richardson: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P2 14:41TBLBoris Katchouk: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:41TBLBoris Katchouk: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:14TBLTaylor Raddysh: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:24TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:24CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:24TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:59TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:59CGYErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:41CGYRasmus Andersson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Backlund – Coleman – Ritchie6:53
xG 0.28–0.31 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Monahan – Mangiapane – Dube6:10
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Lucic2:40
xG 0.00–0.47 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk10:12
xG 0.22–0.72 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Zadorov10:26
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Andersson – Kylington2:11
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Tanev – Zadorov2:50
xG 0.12–0.20 (36%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point11:22
xG 0.87–0.24 (79%)attempts 14–5goals 2–1
- Joseph – Katchouk – Raddysh2:59
xG 0.43–0.18 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare9:38
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli11:26
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta10:59
xG 1.00–0.35 (74%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak14:17
xG 0.76–0.20 (79%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Sergachev – Foote12:15
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).