Thu, Jan 6, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 315 | 08 | 39 | 632 |
| PHI | 09 | 16 | 15 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:21PITBryan RustPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 14:55PITBryan RustAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 16:16PITJake GuentzelGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–0
- P2 8:10PHICam AtkinsonAssists: Joel Farabee, Scott Laughton · Slap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 8:50PITEvan RodriguesAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–1
- P3 10:20PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Snap, 0.25 xG5–1
- P3 11:51PITBrian BoyleSHAssists: John Marino · Snap, 0.16 xG6–1
- P3 13:00PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Morgan Frost, Zack MacEwen · Snap, 0.20 xG6–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:48PITTeddy Blueger: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:25PHIMorgan Frost: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 14:13PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:13PITTristan Jarry: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:24PITKasper Bjorkqvist: Interference2 min
- P3 2:12PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:12PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:46PITMarcus Pettersson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:51PHIKevin Hayes: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKapanen – Heinen – Rodrigues11:22
xG 0.89–0.05 (95%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Boyle – Simon – Bjorkqvist7:16
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel11:59
xG 0.88–0.79 (53%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Blueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese10:40
xG 0.08–0.26 (24%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino13:13
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel12:17
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin14:07
xG 0.64–0.65 (50%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Willman – Bunnaman5:08
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Hayes – MacEwen5:20
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Lindblom – MacEwen2:50
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hayes – Willman – Bunnaman3:18
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Zamula16:23
xG 0.84–0.61 (58%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Braun – York15:21
xG 0.24–0.53 (31%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Yandle – Connauton13:22
xG 0.64–1.59 (29%)attempts 11–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).