Thu, Jan 6, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Florida Panthers 5, Dallas Stars 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 119 | 314 | 19 | 00 | 0 | 542 |
| DAL | 110 | 320 | 12 | 04 | 2 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:28FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad · Slap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 12:53DALMichael RafflAssists: John Klingberg, Radek Faksa · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 0:18FLAAleksander BarkovSHAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Anton Lundell · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 1:46DALDenis GurianovPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Miro Heiskanen · Backhand, 0.43 xG2–2
- P2 4:07FLAPatric HornqvistAssists: Gustav Forsling, Radko Gudas · Tip-in, 0.21 xG3–2
- P2 13:10DALJason RobertsonAssists: John Klingberg, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P2 13:38DALTyler SeguinAssists: Denis Gurianov · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–4
- P2 17:17FLAMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
- P3 6:26DALJamie BennAssists: Denis Gurianov · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–5
- P3 19:31FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. DAL Joe Pavelski scored
- 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 3. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 4. FLA Anton Lundell stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:09DALJohn Klingberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:29DALRadek Faksa: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:54FLAMaxim Mamin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:59FLACarter Verhaeghe: Interference2 min
- P3 0:26DALRadek Faksa: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:08FLAAnthony Duclair: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen7:17
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 2–1
- Thornton – Vatrano – Tippett8:38
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Mamin – Lundell2:04
xG 0.04–0.02 (71%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Mamin7:29
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Forsling13:12
xG 0.70–0.44 (61%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Weegar – Ekblad15:35
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Montour – Forsling2:35
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:53
xG 0.87–0.41 (68%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl10:47
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Radulov – Peterson – Kiviranta5:46
xG 0.07–0.07 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov10:39
xG 0.52–1.06 (33%)attempts 15–15goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- Lindell – Heiskanen15:36
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Harley10:42
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Klingberg14:09
xG 1.11–1.20 (48%)attempts 19–20goals 4–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).