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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 6, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver

Winnipeg Jets 1, Colorado Avalanche 7

Away

Winnipeg Jets

1

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.

COL winsWPG wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WPG11307015135
COL111318313742

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:56WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Andrew Copp, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P1 16:20COLNazem KadriAssists: Erik Johnson, Andre Burakovsky · Slap, 0.30 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:20COLGabriel LandeskogPPGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.45 xG1–2
  4. P2 10:28COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–3
  5. P2 15:21COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
  6. P3 12:17COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Samuel Girard, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
  7. P3 17:10COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–6
  8. P3 19:49COLBowen ByramPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Andre Burakovsky · Slap, 0.10 xG1–7
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 2:36COLKurtis MacDermid: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  2. P1 6:45WPGBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 4:46WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P2 4:46COLLogan O'Connor: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 4:46WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 12:13COLJ.T. Compher: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 1:18COLNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
  8. P3 5:39COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 13:55COLKurtis MacDermid: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 16:39WPGBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min · PPG
  11. P3 17:56WPGCJ Suess: Roughing2 min · PPG
  12. P3 17:56COLTyson Jost: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 19:03WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 19:03WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Interference2 min
  15. P3 19:03COLJ.T. Compher: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WPG00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
48% to win52% to win
← WPG attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against MacKinnon
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WPGCOL
35Shots on goal42
3.2Expected goals3.5
62Shot attempts59
28Faceoffs won25
5Power plays4
14Penalty minutes16
15Hits24
12Blocked shots14
4Giveaways3
8Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Winnipeg Jets

Forward lines

  1. Toninato – Suess – Perfetti3:04

    xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0

  2. Lowry – Ehlers – Perfetti2:19

    xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  3. Lowry – Vesalainen – Reichel6:02

    xG 0.10–0.22 (30%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0

  4. Connor – Svechnikov – Dubois7:59

    xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 10–4goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestSchmidt – Morrissey19:05

    xG 1.35–0.78 (63%)attempts 28–17goals 0–1

  2. Beaulieu – Stanley9:38

    xG 0.08–0.44 (15%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1

  3. Dillon – Pionk14:05

    xG 0.26–0.93 (22%)attempts 9–15goals 0–2

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestKadri – Burakovsky – O'Connor9:47

    xG 0.78–0.05 (94%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0

  2. Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:13

    xG 0.86–0.46 (65%)attempts 19–16goals 2–0

  3. Compher – Aube-Kubel – Newhook5:56

    xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

  4. Helm – MacDermid – Jost4:10

    xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGirard – Byram11:37

    xG 0.87–0.18 (83%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0

  2. Johnson – Girard2:12

    xG 0.55–0.03 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0

  3. Johnson – Murray6:17

    xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.5 xGWPG 3.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLWPG

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.

Excitement 26/100 · #1017 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.86 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 36% (winner's lowest chance)
WPG 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.

COL winsWPG wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).