Sun, Jan 9, 2022·Honda Center, Anaheim
Detroit Red Wings 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 213 | 110 | 03 | 0 | 336 |
| ANA | 110 | 16 | 111 | 00 | 2 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:32ANATrevor ZegrasPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Rickard Rakell · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 0:21DETFilip HronekPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Tyler Bertuzzi · Slap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 15:07DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Marc Staal, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 18:04ANATroy TerryAssists: Sonny Milano, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 2:01ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Rickard Rakell, Trevor Zegras · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 7:55DETVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Michael Rasmussen · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ANA Troy Terry stopped
- 2. DET Lucas Raymond stopped
- 3. ANA Trevor Zegras scored
- 4. DET Adam Erne stopped
- 5. ANA Rickard Rakell scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:07DETGivani Smith: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P1 6:07ANANicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:07DETGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:07DETGivani Smith: Misconduct10 min
- P1 18:29ANASam Steel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:50ANAJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:16DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:18ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Holding2 min
- P3 13:40ANAIsac Lundeström: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond4:26
xG 0.50–0.03 (94%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen11:21
xG 0.57–0.30 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Gagner – Smith – Veleno5:24
xG 0.06–0.04 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Suter – Zadina3:36
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Seider12:07
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Leddy – Hronek16:44
xG 0.55–0.69 (44%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindstrom11:25
xG 0.42–0.61 (41%)attempts 14–10goals 1–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestRakell – Milano – Zegras8:10
xG 0.45–0.06 (88%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Milano – Terry5:50
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Deslauriers – Lundeström3:09
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Rakell – Comtois – Zegras4:13
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Fowler2:02
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Drysdale16:34
xG 0.75–0.53 (59%)attempts 15–16goals 0–2
- Fowler – Manson19:32
xG 0.64–0.88 (42%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).