Thu, Jan 6, 2022·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Nashville Predators 4, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 26 | 18 | 16 | 420 |
| LAK | 013 | 114 | 121 | 248 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:49NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 19:01NSHMatt DuchenePPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 2:49NSHMatt LuffGWGAssists: Michael McCarron, Nick Cousins · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 9:37LAKDustin BrownUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 10:33LAKMartin FrkPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Viktor Arvidsson · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 18:49NSHYakov TreninENAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:53LAKAnze Kopitar: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 5:42NSHAlexandre Carrier: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:32LAKAdrian Kempe: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 5:06NSHAlexandre Carrier: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P2 12:19LAKBrendan Lemieux: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:19NSHMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:02LAKBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:02NSHMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:25NSHRyan Johansen: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:59NSHRyan Johansen: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:29LAKAdrian Kempe: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:43NSHEeli Tolvanen: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lizotte won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – McCarron – Luff7:23
xG 0.75–0.14 (84%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot10:39
xG 0.25–0.63 (28%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Johansen – Kunin – Tolvanen10:55
xG 0.53–0.91 (37%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg12:04
xG 0.37–0.86 (30%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Borowiecki – Myers12:01
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Benning11:33
xG 0.81–0.81 (50%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Josi – Benning3:41
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore9:20
xG 0.68–0.13 (84%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev8:59
xG 0.67–0.37 (65%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Frk – Kempe11:33
xG 0.87–0.57 (60%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Brown – Andersson – Kupari9:32
xG 0.17–0.83 (17%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson13:20
xG 1.23–0.99 (55%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Roy – Anderson2:03
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Moverare13:04
xG 0.61–0.47 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).