Mon, Apr 18, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Ottawa Senators 2, Seattle Kraken 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 03 | 27 | 04 | 214 |
| SEA | 111 | 211 | 17 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:36SEADaniel SprongPPAssists: Victor Rask, Vince Dunn · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 1:11OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 3:15OTTNick HoldenAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Parker Kelly · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 9:52SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Adam Larsson, Vince Dunn · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 16:15SEAVictor RaskGWGAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 18:49SEAJared McCannENAssists: Adam Larsson, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.79 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:41OTTParker Kelly: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 8:16OTTTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:55SEACarson Soucy: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:53OTTAlex Formenton: Charging2 min
- P2 16:53SEAHaydn Fleury: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:53OTTAlex Formenton: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:55OTTAustin Watson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:47SEAJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Norris – Tkachuk9:35
xG 0.31–0.14 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle2:04
xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Formenton – Batherson – Stützle10:03
xG 0.07–0.04 (66%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Tierney – Senyshyn – Gaudette7:09
xG 0.09–0.05 (62%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Zaitsev9:42
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 2–2
- Del Zotto – Hamonic13:33
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Zub15:16
xG 0.07–0.54 (12%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – McCann – Kuhlman8:54
xG 0.72–0.14 (84%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Sprong – Geekie6:00
xG 0.08–0.23 (26%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Eberle – Donato – Beniers10:49
xG 0.10–0.39 (20%)attempts 3–12goals 1–1
- Donskoi – Rask – Wennberg8:23
xG 0.05–0.46 (10%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen12:23
xG 0.85–0.37 (70%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Larsson – Soucy2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Soucy – Fleury9:12
xG 0.05–0.10 (31%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).