Fri, Jan 7, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Washington Capitals 1, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 09 | 08 | 127 |
| STL | 110 | 36 | 18 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02WSHDaniel SprongAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 12:10STLTorey KrugAssists: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 9:08STLPavel BuchnevichGWGAssists: Marco Scandella, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 17:20STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Justin Faulk, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 19:59STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 16:08STLPavel BuchnevichENAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.49 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:32STLIvan Barbashev: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:26WSHCarl Hagelin: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:40STLRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:55WSHNick Jensen: Holding2 min
- P3 14:57STLNiko Mikkola: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson4:26
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Dowd – Leason9:23
xG 0.40–0.24 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Hathaway4:39
xG 0.32–0.26 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Eller – Sheary – Hathaway6:05
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen10:17
xG 0.55–0.33 (63%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Schultz – Orlov2:59
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk9:17
xG 0.32–0.37 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBozak – Brown – Kostin9:42
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Buchnevich – Barbashev10:36
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Thomas10:42
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Perron – Saad – Sundqvist9:27
xG 0.41–0.51 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug15:01
xG 0.94–0.61 (61%)attempts 15–11goals 3–0
- Bortuzzo – Scandella11:31
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Parayko – Mikkola17:16
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).