Sun, Feb 13, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 5, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 112 | 212 | 28 | 532 |
| MTL | 08 | 311 | 013 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Casey Fitzgerald, Alex Tuch · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 1:11MTLMike HoffmanAssists: Corey Schueneman, Paul Byron · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 10:15BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 11:13MTLJeff PetryAssists: Jake Evans, Rem Pitlick · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 16:09MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Ryan Poehling, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 18:24BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Peyton Krebs, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 8:16BUFJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–3
- P3 18:14BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:48BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:08MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference2 min
- P2 7:23BUFPeyton Krebs: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:52MTLRem Pitlick: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 13:21MTLKale Clague: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:59BUFKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Eakin – Asplund11:28
xG 1.32–0.25 (84%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson11:56
xG 1.41–0.81 (64%)attempts 10–16goals 3–1
- Jankowski – Hayden – Bjork8:21
xG 0.14–0.39 (27%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Krebs – Cozens9:00
xG 0.12–0.43 (22%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin16:29
xG 2.05–0.79 (72%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Hagg – Bryson13:05
xG 0.70–0.34 (67%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Fitzgerald – Samuelsson13:41
xG 0.42–0.67 (38%)attempts 9–14goals 2–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Anderson – Evans – Pitlick8:32
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Suzuki – Caufield12:05
xG 0.56–0.75 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 0–3
- Armia – Lehkonen – Poehling10:23
xG 0.74–1.17 (39%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
- Byron – Hoffman – Gallagher9:44
xG 0.78–1.27 (38%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Clague – Romanov2:10
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Clague11:04
xG 0.30–0.50 (37%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Romanov – Schueneman15:21
xG 0.72–1.27 (36%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).