Sat, Jan 8, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Boston Bruins 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 27 | 212 | 111 | 530 |
| TBL | 013 | 07 | 29 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:11BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Taylor Hall, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 6:10BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Taylor Hall, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–0
- P2 0:26BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Mike Reilly, Patrice Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 14:54BOSAnton BlidhAssists: Oskar Steen · Snap, 0.09 xG4–0
- P3 0:24TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Erik Cernak, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.16 xG4–1
- P3 11:20TBLBrayden PointAssists: Erik Cernak, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 17:11BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: Urho Vaakanainen · Wrist, 0.69 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:45BOSCurtis Lazar: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:39BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:53BOSPatrice Bergeron: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:28TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:57TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:54BOSCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Hall – Pastrnak11:38
xG 0.82–0.53 (61%)attempts 9–14goals 2–1
- Foligno – Coyle – Steen3:55
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith10:04
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Blidh – Lazar – Frederic8:56
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Clifton16:24
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Reilly – Carlo15:20
xG 0.80–0.54 (60%)attempts 11–13goals 3–2
- Grzelcyk – Vaakanainen12:06
xG 0.41–0.53 (43%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Palat – Cirelli2:22
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point2:27
xG 0.23–0.15 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli8:43
xG 0.07–0.13 (36%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Joseph – Katchouk – Raddysh7:32
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – Sergachev13:55
xG 0.64–0.47 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
- Hedman – Foote3:13
xG 0.14–0.08 (65%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Rutta11:39
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).