Sat, Jan 8, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 214 | 112 | 09 | 11 | 436 |
| CAR | 19 | 19 | 18 | 01 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:05FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Anthony Duclair, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 3:34CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 17:40FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 0:35FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 14:14CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Brett Pesce, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 1:45CARSeth JarvisAssists: Sebastian Aho, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 2:53FLAAnthony DuclairGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:03FLAEetu Luostarinen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:03FLALucas Carlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:03CARBrett Pesce: Interference2 min
- P3 11:23FLARadko Gudas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:31CARJordan Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:24FLAFrank Vatrano: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestLomberg – Heponiemi – Luostarinen8:31
xG 0.88–0.07 (93%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Mamin12:56
xG 1.03–0.41 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Thornton – Vatrano – Tippett7:40
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Lundell10:23
xG 0.28–0.76 (27%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Carlsson10:09
xG 0.82–0.23 (78%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Gudas – Forsling14:03
xG 0.90–0.46 (66%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Weegar – Ekblad16:58
xG 1.16–1.06 (52%)attempts 18–19goals 1–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Jarvis7:05
xG 0.69–0.26 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Stepan – Lorentz – Jarvis3:38
xG 0.59–0.25 (70%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Staal – Necas – Kotkaniemi4:31
xG 0.04–0.06 (38%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho4:14
xG 0.05–0.19 (21%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Bear11:55
xG 1.09–0.64 (63%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Slavin – DeAngelo17:29
xG 0.60–1.20 (33%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
- Skjei – Pesce18:07
xG 0.52–1.14 (31%)attempts 15–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).