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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 8, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

New Jersey Devils 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.

CBJ winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD26113011330
CBJ211112111434

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:01CBJOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 4:03CBJBoone JennerAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Adam Boqvist · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–2
  3. P1 14:41NJDNico HischierAssists: Damon Severson, Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P1 19:40NJDJimmy VeseyAssists: Dawson Mercer · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
  5. P2 9:31CBJEgor ChinakhovAssists: Eric Robinson, Sean Kuraly · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
  6. P2 13:32NJDMarián StudenicAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–3
  7. P3 5:00CBJOliver BjorkstrandGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Adam Boqvist · Slap, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 0:42NJDDamon Severson: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  2. P1 4:36CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Holding2 min
  3. P2 10:49CBJJoonas Korpisalo: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 18:44CBJMax Domi: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 6:36NJDMichael McLeod: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 9:56NJDP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
48% to win52% to win
← NJD attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Roslovic won the faceoff against Hischier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDCBJ
30Shots on goal34
3.2Expected goals2.5
51Shot attempts53
31Faceoffs won36
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
13Hits24
9Blocked shots10
1Giveaways12
3Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

New Jersey Devils

Forward lines

  1. Greer – McLeod – Boqvist2:29

    xG 0.03–0.09 (25%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

  2. Greer – McLeod – Studenic4:07

    xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0

  3. Tatar – Hughes – Mercer11:48

    xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1

  4. Vesey – Kuokkanen – Hischier11:10

    xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestSubban – Graves13:00

    xG 0.98–0.66 (59%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0

  2. Severson – Siegenthaler14:27

    xG 0.44–0.53 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 1–2

  3. White – Smith3:13

    xG 0.03–0.19 (14%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. bestKuraly – Robinson – Chinakhov6:39

    xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1

  2. Domi – Bemstrom – Sillinger5:49

    xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1

  3. Voracek – Bjorkstrand – Sillinger4:32

    xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0

  4. Voracek – Bjorkstrand – Roslovic7:16

    xG 0.14–0.20 (40%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestWerenski – Boqvist14:31

    xG 0.68–0.18 (79%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0

  2. Kukan – Peeke7:39

    xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0

  3. Gavrikov – Peeke2:34

    xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.5 xGNJD 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 79/100 · #321 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.91 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 49% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.

CBJ winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).