Sat, Jan 8, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 211 | 010 | 08 | 229 |
| DAL | 07 | 110 | 215 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:02PITBrian DumoulinAssists: Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 6:27PITKasperi KapanenAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Jeff Carter · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 16:01DALDenis GurianovAssists: Jacob Peterson, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 14:59DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Jason Robertson, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 16:14DALRoope HintzGWGAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson · Backhand, 0.32 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 0:10DALJani Hakanpää: Interference2 min
- P2 8:08PITMark Friedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:08DALAlexander Radulov: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:43PITTeddy Blueger: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:23DALJohn Klingberg: Interference2 min
- P3 5:48DALDenis Gurianov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Rodrigues13:21
xG 1.61–0.20 (89%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- Blueger – Simon – Aston-Reese8:21
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Blueger – Aston-Reese3:21
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Carter – Kapanen – Heinen11:06
xG 0.40–1.00 (29%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin13:40
xG 0.60–0.29 (68%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Friedman – Marino2:39
xG 0.16–0.40 (28%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel10:02
xG 0.10–0.45 (19%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:43
xG 1.31–0.23 (85%)attempts 17–4goals 2–1
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov10:03
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Radulov – Peterson – Kiviranta6:00
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl10:38
xG 0.20–1.11 (15%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen10:37
xG 1.22–0.07 (94%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Suter – Klingberg6:43
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Klingberg – Lindell2:54
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).