Sat, Jan 8, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Washington Capitals 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 010 | 211 | 08 | 02 | 0 | 231 |
| MIN | 09 | 15 | 17 | 02 | 2 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:41WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Nick Jensen, Conor Sheary · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 5:48WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Lars Eller · Slap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 13:55MINMarcus FolignoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–1
- P3 19:25MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Mathew Dumba, Kevin Fiala · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 2. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 3. MIN Kevin Fiala scored
- 4. WSH Daniel Sprong stopped
- 5. MIN Frederick Gaudreau scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:05MINMarco Rossi: Holding2 min
- P1 18:50WSHNick Jensen: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:44MINKevin Fiala: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 7:00MINKevin Fiala: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:11MINKevin Fiala: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:55MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson11:09
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Eller – Sheary – McMichael10:01
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Sgarbossa – Sprong – Protas6:59
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway12:40
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – van Riemsdyk11:38
xG 0.77–0.13 (86%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen12:54
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry2:36
xG 0.26–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Fiala – Rossi3:15
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Dewar – Sturm4:55
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Boldy – Rossi5:55
xG 0.09–0.08 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Rau – Rask – Pitlick3:25
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Merrill – Dumba2:11
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Merrill14:09
xG 0.56–0.62 (48%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Benn – Dumba15:58
xG 0.40–0.54 (43%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).