Tue, Apr 19, 2022·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Ottawa Senators 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 014 | 18 | 29 | 00 | 2 | 431 |
| VAN | 210 | 016 | 18 | 03 | 1 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:55VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 15:14VANBrock BoeserAssists: Brad Hunt, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 4:04OTTAlex FormentonAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Tim Stützle · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 2:17OTTParker KellyAssists: Erik Brannstrom, Artem Zub · Snap, 0.26 xG2–2
- P3 3:49OTTAlex FormentonAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 6:47VANTravis DermottAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. VAN Brock Boeser stopped
- 2. OTT Tim Stützle stopped
- 3. VAN J.T. Miller scored
- 4. OTT Josh Norris stopped
- 5. VAN Elias Pettersson stopped
- 6. OTT Drake Batherson scored
- 7. VAN Conor Garland stopped
- 8. OTT Brady Tkachuk stopped
- 9. VAN Nic Petan stopped
- 10. OTT Adam Gaudette scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:49OTTDylan Gambrell: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:10OTTZach Senyshyn: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:07VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:43OTTArtem Zub: Holding2 min
- P2 17:37OTTDylan Gambrell: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:37VANVasily Podkolzin: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:37OTTJosh Norris: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestFormenton – Batherson – Stützle3:46
xG 1.49–0.37 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Watson – Gambrell – Kelly10:38
xG 0.91–0.59 (61%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Brown – Formenton – Stützle6:54
xG 0.88–0.73 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Tierney – Senyshyn – Gaudette2:50
xG 0.00–0.02 (2%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Zub12:58
xG 1.02–0.63 (62%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Hamonic13:06
xG 1.35–1.10 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Holden – Zaitsev12:26
xG 0.61–0.45 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Garland – Podkolzin9:36
xG 1.00–0.39 (72%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Lammikko – Highmore – Lockwood10:14
xG 0.59–0.82 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Richardson – Petan – Dries5:52
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Boeser – Pettersson10:01
xG 0.53–1.68 (24%)attempts 10–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Ekman-Larsson13:56
xG 1.69–1.13 (60%)attempts 24–10goals 0–1
- Hunt – Dermott10:00
xG 0.87–0.81 (52%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Dermott – Hughes3:02
xG 0.09–0.18 (34%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).