Tue, Feb 15, 2022·Prudential Center, Newark
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 14 | 214 | 314 | 632 |
| NJD | 29 | 17 | 09 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:27NJDDawson MercerAssists: Jack Hughes, Yegor Sharangovich · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:05TBLPatrick MaroonUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 19:04NJDYegor SharangovichPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Dawson Mercer · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 1:48NJDJack HughesAssists: Dawson Mercer · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 15:32TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jan Rutta · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 16:13TBLAlex KillornAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 7:17TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 9:14TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point · Snap, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 10:21TBLPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Corey Perry, Patrick Maroon · Backhand, 0.18 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:48TBLCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 10:09NJDMason Geertsen: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:01TBLJan Rutta: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:50NJDNathan Bastian: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:50TBLErik Cernak: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:50NJDMason Geertsen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:36NJDDamon Severson: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:36TBLMikhail Sergachev: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:36TBLCal Foote: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Bellemare9:31
xG 0.75–0.26 (74%)attempts 12–3goals 3–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point5:16
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point8:05
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Killorn – Palat – Cirelli7:13
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev4:56
xG 0.66–0.19 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Hedman – Rutta15:47
xG 0.40–0.58 (40%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Sergachev3:57
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSharangovich – Hughes – Mercer14:49
xG 1.22–0.78 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 2–2
- Geertsen – Bastian – McLeod8:01
xG 0.31–0.07 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Tatar – Zacha – Hischier12:17
xG 0.60–0.49 (55%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Vesey – Boqvist – Studenic9:10
xG 0.50–0.53 (49%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – White13:10
xG 0.82–0.33 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Severson – Siegenthaler17:33
xG 1.39–0.92 (60%)attempts 18–15goals 1–2
- Subban – Smith12:44
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).