Wed, Feb 16, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 3, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 115 | 08 | 213 | 336 |
| WPG | 010 | 213 | 48 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:29MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 11:20WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 19:48WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 1:07WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 2:23WPGCole PerfettiGWGAssists: Nate Schmidt, Logan Stanley · Deflected, 0.27 xG1–4
- P3 4:20MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 10:02WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Cole Perfetti · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 16:46MINDmitry KulikovAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–5
- P3 17:50WPGPaul StastnyENAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P2 7:43WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:13MINFrederick Gaudreau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:56WPGAustin Poganski: Holding2 min
- P3 13:56MINRyan Hartman: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:44
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy10:53
xG 0.88–1.00 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 0–3
- Duhaime – Dewar – Sturm8:17
xG 0.41–0.55 (43%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov12:39
xG 0.30–0.67 (30%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin16:45
xG 1.03–0.27 (79%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Benn – Kulikov12:30
xG 0.37–0.92 (29%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Merrill14:49
xG 0.91–1.55 (37%)attempts 23–19goals 0–3
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stastny – Scheifele14:26
xG 1.07–0.45 (71%)attempts 16–17goals 2–1
- Lowry – Copp – Reichel11:29
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Connor – Dubois – Perfetti10:59
xG 1.07–1.07 (50%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Toninato – Poganski – Harkins4:24
xG 0.09–0.34 (21%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey12:42
xG 1.07–0.55 (66%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Schmidt – Stanley13:51
xG 1.18–0.88 (57%)attempts 19–24goals 1–1
- Dillon – Pionk14:30
xG 0.27–1.05 (20%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).