Mon, Jan 10, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Seattle Kraken 3, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 110 | 28 | 08 | 326 |
| COL | 19 | 112 | 214 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:50COLNicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Logan O'Connor, Alex Newhook · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 9:16SEAMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jared McCann · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 4:49SEAJared McCannAssists: Marcus Johansson, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 14:20SEAColin BlackwellAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Yanni Gourde · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 17:00COLNicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 11:47COLDevon ToewsAssists: Cale Makar, Nazem Kadri · Deflected, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 14:17COLNazem KadriGWGAssists: Tyson Jost, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:45COLNazem Kadri: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:18SEAJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:27SEAJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min
- P2 17:09COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:38SEAMason Appleton: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:38COLLogan O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:38SEAYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against McCann
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Johansson – McCann9:13
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Donato – Appleton – Geekie7:57
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Jarnkrok – Blackwell – Gourde8:43
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Sheahan – Donskoi – Wennberg7:37
xG 0.07–0.50 (13%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Giordano – Oleksiak13:32
xG 0.28–0.33 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Larsson – Soucy15:09
xG 0.74–0.98 (43%)attempts 14–18goals 0–3
- Dunn – Lauzon10:47
xG 0.24–0.49 (33%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen4:38
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – MacKinnon – Rantanen6:14
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–2
- Kadri – Compher – Nichushkin4:55
xG 0.11–0.09 (54%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – O'Connor – Newhook3:52
xG 0.10–0.30 (25%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar16:44
xG 0.71–0.16 (82%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Johnson – Johnson8:01
xG 0.78–0.32 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Girard – Byram12:28
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).