Sat, Jan 15, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 6, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 07 | 513 | 626 |
| EDM | 116 | 28 | 113 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:35OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 19:12EDMZack KassianPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Jesse Puljujarvi · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 12:18EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Warren Foegele, William Lagesson · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 17:34EDMBrendan PerliniAssists: Duncan Keith, Colton Sceviour · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 2:41OTTAdam GaudetteAssists: Alex Formenton, Chris Tierney · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 5:07OTTAlex FormentonAssists: Adam Gaudette, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 10:40OTTArtem ZubAssists: Joshua Brown, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 12:17EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Zach Hyman, Jesse Puljujarvi · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 16:18OTTJosh NorrisPPGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–4
- P3 19:02OTTZachary SanfordENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.43 xG6–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:02EDMTyson Barrie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 16:38OTTTim Stützle: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:33OTTErik Brannstrom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:37OTTAdam Gaudette: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:38EDMDarnell Nurse: Interference2 min
- P3 15:17EDMCody Ceci: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Gambrell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Tierney – Gaudette3:42
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Watson – Sanford – Gambrell8:31
xG 0.42–0.13 (77%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Tierney – Gaudette – Formenton3:04
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 3–6goals 2–0
- Paul – Batherson – Stützle3:43
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Brannstrom8:14
xG 0.68–0.28 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Holden – Zub17:02
xG 0.58–0.58 (50%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Chabot – Bernard-Docker12:22
xG 0.46–0.68 (40%)attempts 6–20goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Puljujarvi – McLeod10:41
xG 0.36–0.08 (83%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid16:35
xG 0.82–0.67 (55%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Foegele – Ryan – Yamamoto8:05
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Sceviour – Shore – Perlini3:22
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Barrie19:35
xG 1.05–0.32 (77%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Ceci – Nurse20:31
xG 0.67–0.83 (45%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Lagesson – Bouchard6:46
xG 0.32–1.05 (23%)attempts 9–10goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).