Mon, Feb 21, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 02 | 213 | 110 | 16 | 431 |
| PHI | 011 | 111 | 214 | 05 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:24CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Jesper Fast, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 0:59PHIGerry MayhewAssists: Justin Braun, Ivan Provorov · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 12:13CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 5:19PHIPatrick BrownAssists: Isaac Ratcliffe, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 7:15CARVincent TrocheckAssists: Martin Necas, Ian Cole · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 15:07PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim · Tip-in, 0.22 xG3–3
- OT 4:42CARBrett PesceGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:00CARAndrei Svechnikov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:07CARMartin Necas: Interference2 min
- P2 13:58PHINick Seeler: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:50CARJesper Fast: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:50PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:30CARMartin Necas: Interference2 min
- P3 13:35PHIZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:35CARIan Cole: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov11:47
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 13–16goals 1–2
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast13:25
xG 0.71–0.84 (46%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Lorentz – Necas10:05
xG 0.25–0.50 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Stepan – Martinook – Kotkaniemi7:59
xG 0.18–0.58 (24%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Slavin5:58
xG 0.28–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Bear6:09
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Slavin – DeAngelo6:33
xG 0.62–0.51 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrown – MacEwen – Ratcliffe6:27
xG 0.78–0.17 (82%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Giroux – Atkinson – Ratcliffe2:30
xG 0.14–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Willman – Mayhew – Frost3:29
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Atkinson – Lindblom3:47
xG 0.09–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov19:20
xG 1.00–0.32 (76%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Yandle – Seeler7:47
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Sanheim18:44
xG 1.05–1.27 (45%)attempts 16–23goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).