Tue, Jan 11, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 4, Nashville Predators 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 214 | 216 | 05 | 444 |
| NSH | 212 | 19 | 19 | 12 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:32NSHTanner JeannotAssists: Matt Luff, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 19:04NSHLuke KuninAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 8:15COLNicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Nazem Kadri, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 11:48COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 17:25NSHLuke KuninAssists: Nick Cousins · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 5:21COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 10:00NSHMatt DuchenePPAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Roman Josi · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 13:19COLCale MakarAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 3:01NSHMatt DuchenePPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:51NSHDante Fabbro: Interference2 min
- P1 8:53NSHEeli Tolvanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:52COLAlex Newhook: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:13NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:13COLJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:13NSHRyan Johansen: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:36COLMikko Rantanen: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 18:07COLMikhail Maltsev: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 2:32COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Aube-Kubel2:45
xG 0.39–0.15 (73%)attempts 9–2goals 2–0
- MacDermid – Jost – Maltsev2:43
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Burakovsky – MacKinnon – Nichushkin4:12
xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Kadri – Aube-Kubel – Rantanen4:49
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Murray3:59
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Johnson2:04
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar13:28
xG 0.71–0.74 (49%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Cousins – Kunin10:19
xG 0.75–0.30 (71%)attempts 13–12goals 2–1
- Duchene – Granlund – Tolvanen13:35
xG 0.36–0.40 (48%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Sissons – Luff – Jeannot9:08
xG 0.32–0.38 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- McCarron – Tomasino – Smith5:53
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro10:27
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Carrier12:32
xG 0.66–0.43 (60%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro2:58
xG 0.17–0.03 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).