Tue, Jan 11, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Vegas Golden Knights 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 26 | 02 | 01 | 1 | 418 |
| VGK | 16 | 014 | 212 | 02 | 0 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:24TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Morgan Rielly, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 13:00VGKKeegan KolesarPPAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 11:43TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Michael Bunting, Ondrej Kase · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 16:46TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 1:34VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Reilly Smith, Mattias Janmark · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 11:48VGKAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. VGK Evgenii Dadonov stopped
- 2. TOR Jason Spezza stopped
- 3. VGK Chandler Stephenson stopped
- 4. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 5. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 6. TOR William Nylander scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:23VGKBrett Howden: Holding2 min
- P1 10:22VGKZach Whitecloud: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:22TORNick Ritchie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:49TORJake Muzzin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:07TORAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:54TORKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:00TORWilliam Nylander: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Kase – Matthews13:22
xG 0.88–0.10 (89%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Spezza – Clifford – Ritchie4:15
xG 0.01–0.13 (10%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Kampf – Mikheyev6:34
xG 0.36–0.50 (42%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander9:15
xG 0.09–0.43 (18%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl15:02
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Dermott – Sandin10:46
xG 0.40–0.20 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly14:01
xG 0.42–0.54 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:56
xG 1.20–0.33 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Amadio – Leschyshyn – Rondbjerg5:39
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Janmark – Amadio – Kolesar2:46
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Howden – Leschyshyn – Rondbjerg2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Coghlan4:09
xG 0.53–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hutton2:47
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- McNabb – Coghlan12:05
xG 0.51–0.27 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).