Tue, Jan 11, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Detroit Red Wings 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 16 | 16 | 01 | 219 |
| SJS | 112 | 014 | 113 | 11 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:24SJSTimo MeierPPAssists: Jonathan Dahlen, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 19:38DETTyler BertuzziPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Moritz Seider · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 1:48DETNick LeddyAssists: Filip Hronek, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 3:18SJSJeffrey VielAssists: Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 1:00SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Jonathan Dahlen · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:39SJSJeffrey Viel: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:39DETGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:23SJSJonathan Dahlen: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:11DETMarc Staal: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:02DETRobby Fabbri: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:58DETSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:39SJSMario Ferraro: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:59SJSTomas Hertl: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Namestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen7:50
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Gagner – Smith – Veleno2:50
xG 0.07–0.23 (24%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Smith – Suter – Zadina4:06
xG 0.18–0.41 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Fabbri – Raymond13:26
xG 0.31–1.34 (19%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Lindstrom2:53
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Leddy – Hronek15:07
xG 0.68–0.87 (44%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Leddy – Lindstrom2:14
xG 0.12–0.36 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Dahlen – Gregor10:26
xG 1.36–0.19 (88%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Hertl – Meier – Barabanov14:05
xG 1.29–0.27 (83%)attempts 20–4goals 0–1
- Merkley – Viel – Raska5:02
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Nieto – Weatherby7:20
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Merkley10:32
xG 0.81–0.15 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Megna16:48
xG 0.98–0.49 (67%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Burns – Ferraro19:14
xG 1.11–1.09 (50%)attempts 23–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).