Thu, Jan 13, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Vancouver Canucks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 113 | 04 | 19 | 226 |
| TBL | 28 | 05 | 28 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:16TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:05VANMatthew HighmoreAssists: Tyler Motte · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 19:39TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Alex Killorn, Erik Cernak · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 11:24TBLBoris KatchoukGWGAssists: Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 15:46VANTyler MotteAssists: Juho Lammikko, Matthew Highmore · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 18:44TBLBrayden PointENAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.76 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:37VANVasily Podkolzin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:55VANConor Garland: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:55TBLBrayden Point: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:55TBLBrayden Point: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:14VANTyler Myers: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:49TBLBrayden Point: Holding2 min
- P2 19:57TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P3 3:51VANBo Horvat: Holding2 min
- P3 12:31TBLCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lammikko won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Garland – Pettersson9:24
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Pearson – Boeser10:33
xG 0.35–0.30 (53%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Hoglander – Podkolzin6:46
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Motte – Lammikko – Highmore10:52
xG 0.45–0.63 (42%)attempts 8–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestHunt – Poolman8:23
xG 0.53–0.30 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson11:30
xG 0.67–0.49 (58%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Hunt3:39
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKatchouk – Raddysh – Colton6:15
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 1–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli8:06
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Kucherov3:21
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare7:17
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Foote11:43
xG 0.61–0.21 (74%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Sergachev2:55
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Hedman – Rutta13:35
xG 0.20–0.35 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).