Thu, Jan 13, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
New Jersey Devils 2, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 114 | 06 | 112 | 232 |
| NYI | 114 | 15 | 16 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:43NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: P.K. Subban, Colton White · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 18:59NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: Zach Parise, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–1
- P2 9:22NYIAdam PelechAssists: Kieffer Bellows, Zach Parise · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 10:25NJDNathan BastianPPAssists: Ty Smith, Nico Hischier · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 15:07NYIMathew BarzalGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:12NYIRoss Johnston: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 13:41NJDRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:19NYIBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:07NJDColton White: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:08NJDJonas Siegenthaler: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:19NYIAdam Pelech: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:20NJDNathan Bastian: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:47NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:08NYIBrock Nelson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:27NYIRoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:27NJDNathan Bastian: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Sharangovich – Hughes8:15
xG 1.03–0.43 (71%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Vesey – Zacha – Hischier8:17
xG 0.73–0.51 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Greer – Bastian – McLeod6:04
xG 0.02–0.29 (5%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Boqvist – Mercer8:37
xG 0.18–0.81 (18%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Jaros2:57
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Subban – Smith3:02
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jaros – Smith8:07
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Barzal8:59
xG 0.91–0.59 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Johnston7:55
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Nelson – Beauvillier – Wahlstrom9:04
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Parise – Czarnik – Bellows8:15
xG 0.13–0.35 (27%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech11:11
xG 0.71–0.26 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Greene – Dobson2:39
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Greene – Pelech2:12
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).