Thu, Jan 13, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Buffalo Sabres 4, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 15 | 25 | 421 |
| NSH | 09 | 113 | 08 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:30BUFMark JankowskiAssists: Mark Pysyk · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 13:12NSHMatt DuchenePPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Roman Josi · Deflected, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 18:18BUFJeff SkinnerPPGWGAssists: Dylan Cozens, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 7:59BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 18:46BUFVinnie HinostrozaENAssists: Robert Hagg, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.55 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:44BUFJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:28BUFJeff Skinner: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:44NSHMatt Benning: Interference2 min
- P2 12:27BUFCody Eakin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:42NSHColton Sissons: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:35BUFAaron Dell: Interference2 min
- P3 3:47NSHMichael McCarron: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:02NSHTanner Jeannot: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Cozens11:11
xG 0.71–0.24 (74%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Olofsson – Asplund7:45
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Eakin – Hayden – Bjork6:55
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Hinostroza6:50
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Bryson6:09
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Miller – Hagg6:21
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Bryson8:45
xG 0.08–0.15 (36%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Cousins – Kunin9:34
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 13–2goals 0–1
- McCarron – Tomasino – Smith5:48
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Sissons – Luff – Jeannot10:57
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Tolvanen9:08
xG 0.31–0.60 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Myers7:37
xG 0.30–0.01 (95%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier3:44
xG 0.29–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro15:04
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).