Fri, Jan 14, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Anaheim Ducks 3, Minnesota Wild 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 113 | 012 | 217 | 342 |
| MIN | 314 | 011 | 417 | 742 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:25MINKevin FialaAssists: Matt Boldy, Nico Sturm · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 8:52MINRyan HartmanAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Deflected, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 11:39ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Trevor Zegras, Kevin Shattenkirk · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 14:59MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 0:30MINMatt BoldyGWGAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–4
- P3 0:34MINMats ZuccarelloUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG1–5
- P3 2:05MINVictor RaskAssists: Marcus Foligno · Snap, 0.11 xG1–6
- P3 4:39ANADerek GrantAssists: Jamie Drysdale, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–6
- P3 6:06ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Cam Fowler, Maxime Comtois · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–6
- P3 11:47MINMathew DumbaAssists: Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–7
Penalties (3)
- P1 12:31MINJordan Greenway: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:19ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:19MINBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Grant – Carrick2:33
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Rakell – Comtois – Zegras13:40
xG 0.93–0.91 (50%)attempts 24–19goals 2–3
- Grant – Silfverberg – Lundeström9:50
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Getzlaf – Carrick – Milano3:16
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson19:55
xG 1.07–0.92 (54%)attempts 28–23goals 1–4
- Lindholm – Drysdale19:44
xG 0.88–1.04 (46%)attempts 25–25goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – Larsson14:40
xG 0.32–0.76 (30%)attempts 13–17goals 1–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov15:54
xG 1.33–0.87 (60%)attempts 21–22goals 4–1
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy12:18
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Duhaime – Dewar – Sturm8:44
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Foligno – Rask – Greenway11:28
xG 0.44–0.53 (46%)attempts 11–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Merrill21:27
xG 0.93–0.50 (65%)attempts 27–22goals 3–1
- Mermis – Addison13:49
xG 0.75–0.75 (50%)attempts 14–18goals 2–1
- Benn – Dumba19:31
xG 0.83–1.03 (45%)attempts 19–30goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).