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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 15, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise

Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Florida Panthers 9

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

2

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

9

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 91% of the time.

FLA winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ0908213230
FLA420216315951

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:46FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P1 2:07FLAAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
  3. P1 9:27FLAMacKenzie WeegarSHGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.11 xG0–3
  4. P1 13:28FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Sam Reinhart, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.04 xG0–4
  5. P2 2:02FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Sam Bennett · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–5
  6. P2 12:10FLAAnton LundellAssists: Ryan Lomberg, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.10 xG0–6
  7. P3 2:11CBJGustav NyquistPPAssists: Max Domi, Jake Bean · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–6
  8. P3 3:40FLASam BennettAssists: Anthony Duclair · Snap, 0.07 xG1–7
  9. P3 7:33FLAAnton LundellAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Aaron Ekblad · Slap, 0.21 xG1–8
  10. P3 10:14FLARyan LombergAssists: Eetu Luostarinen · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–9
  11. P3 10:50CBJBoone JennerAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Andrew Peeke · Snap, 0.02 xG2–9
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 2:00CBJGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:30FLAAnthony Duclair: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 16:08CBJAlexandre Texier: Holding2 min
  4. P2 7:13CBJDean Kukan: High sticking double minor4 min
  5. P2 16:52FLAOlli Juolevi: Holding2 min
  6. P3 1:02FLARadko Gudas: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P3 13:33FLAMacKenzie Weegar: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
48% to win52% to win
← CBJ attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Barkov
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJFLA
30Shots on goal51
1.9Expected goals5.2
46Shot attempts73
27Faceoffs won21
4Power plays4
8Penalty minutes8
29Hits19
14Blocked shots11
18Giveaways20
8Takeaways14

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. bestTexier – Bemstrom – Foudy3:13

    xG 0.14–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1

  2. Bjorkstrand – Roslovic – Laine2:35

    xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  3. Kuraly – Domi – Robinson5:00

    xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0

  4. Nyquist – Jenner – Laine6:06

    xG 0.26–0.49 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Kukan – Bean12:08

    xG 0.24–1.10 (18%)attempts 7–14goals 1–2

  2. Werenski – Boqvist13:10

    xG 0.39–1.36 (22%)attempts 14–21goals 0–3

  3. Gavrikov – Peeke15:07

    xG 0.35–1.56 (18%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart8:39

    xG 1.18–0.17 (87%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0

  2. Huberdeau – Duclair – Bennett8:48

    xG 1.15–0.17 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0

  3. Vatrano – Mamin – Lundell9:40

    xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0

  4. Hornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen8:58

    xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestWeegar – Ekblad13:54

    xG 1.52–0.32 (83%)attempts 24–9goals 2–1

  2. Montour – Juolevi13:46

    xG 1.29–0.40 (77%)attempts 21–10goals 2–0

  3. Gudas – Forsling14:19

    xG 1.28–0.45 (74%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 5.2 xGCBJ 1.9 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLACBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #1068 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.51 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 91% of the time.

FLA winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).