Sat, Jan 15, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Vancouver Canucks 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 08 | 016 | 131 |
| CAR | 112 | 210 | 111 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:17CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 13:24VANBo HorvatAssists: Luke Schenn · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 1:02CARVincent TrocheckGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 4:49CARMartin NecasAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 4:09CARSteven LorentzAssists: Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:49CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P1 7:39VANTyler Myers: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:38CARJoey Keane: Holding2 min
- P1 17:09CARNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:51CARIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:13VANJuho Lammikko: Interference2 min
- P2 16:12VANBo Horvat: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:12CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:00CARIan Cole: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Garland – Podkolzin3:33
xG 0.26–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Hoglander – Podkolzin4:27
xG 0.10–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Horvat – Highmore – Pettersson4:24
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Pearson – Boeser6:06
xG 0.26–0.24 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoolman – Hughes11:20
xG 0.72–0.47 (61%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hunt8:36
xG 0.82–0.65 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Hunt – Poolman3:17
xG 0.00–0.01 (6%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Lorentz10:26
xG 0.76–0.28 (73%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Necas – Svechnikov10:23
xG 0.84–0.91 (48%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
- Niederreiter – Martinook – Kotkaniemi9:14
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis6:59
xG 0.01–0.34 (4%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce13:24
xG 0.69–0.35 (66%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Cole – DeAngelo12:52
xG 0.85–0.76 (53%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Smith – Keane12:41
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).