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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 15, 2022·United Center, Chicago

Anaheim Ducks 0, Chicago Blackhawks 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.

CHI winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA011014012037
CHI01511229336

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 5:33CHIBrandon HagelGWGAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Riley Stillman · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
  2. P3 4:22CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
  3. P3 16:39CHIDominik KubalikENAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.79 xG0–3
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 6:23CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 11:07ANAJamie Drysdale: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 3:23CHIErik Gustafsson: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 13:54ANAMaxime Comtois: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 3:55ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Cross checking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
48% to win52% to win
← ANA attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lafferty won the faceoff against Lundeström
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANACHI
37Shots on goal36
4.0Expected goals4.4
65Shot attempts58
19Faceoffs won27
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
33Hits24
16Blocked shots14
4Giveaways14
5Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Anaheim Ducks

Forward lines

  1. bestDeslauriers – Robinson – Steel5:38

    xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0

  2. Lettieri – Comtois – Zegras8:50

    xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0

  3. Getzlaf – Carrick – Rakell8:00

    xG 0.34–0.57 (37%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0

  4. Grant – Silfverberg – Lundeström9:38

    xG 0.44–0.83 (35%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestShattenkirk – Larsson16:35

    xG 1.08–0.54 (66%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0

  2. Lindholm – Drysdale13:20

    xG 0.61–0.87 (41%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0

  3. Manson – Guhle14:34

    xG 0.44–0.74 (37%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0

Chicago Blackhawks

Forward lines

  1. bestToews – Kubalik – DeBrincat9:38

    xG 1.14–0.70 (62%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0

  2. Lafferty – Borgstrom – Kurashev8:02

    xG 0.40–0.06 (87%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0

  3. Kane – Hagel – Reichel11:18

    xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0

  4. Khaira – Carpenter – Entwistle12:31

    xG 0.17–0.84 (16%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMurphy – Jones3:11

    xG 0.59–0.06 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0

  2. Stillman – Galvas8:31

    xG 1.18–0.79 (60%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0

  3. de Haan – Gustafsson2:20

    xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 4.4 xGANA 4.0 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 8/100 · #1210 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.70 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.

CHI winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).