Sat, Jan 15, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 314 | 113 | 213 | 640 |
| STL | 110 | 311 | 14 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 5:43TORMichael BuntingAssists: Auston Matthews · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 7:32TORMitch MarnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 9:27TORJohn TavaresAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 3:40STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Niko Mikkola · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 5:20STLBrandon SaadAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 8:18TORTimothy LiljegrenAssists: Travis Dermott, Pierre Engvall · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P2 16:13STLRobert ThomasAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- P3 3:25STLNiko MikkolaAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 11:24TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Slap, 0.13 xG5–5
- P3 16:45TORIlya MikheyevGWGAssists: Pierre Engvall · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:10TORIlya Mikheyev: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:32STLTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:32TORMichael Bunting: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:19STLTorey Krug: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:56STLJordan Kyrou: Holding2 min
- P3 10:30STLKlim Kostin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:54TORMorgan Rielly: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews11:41
xG 0.87–0.26 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 2–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander11:08
xG 0.60–0.14 (81%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev9:59
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Spezza – Simmonds – Clifford5:43
xG 0.04–0.52 (7%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Liljegren13:09
xG 0.89–0.56 (61%)attempts 17–10goals 2–2
- Brodie – Rielly15:52
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Dermott – Sandin9:20
xG 0.08–0.22 (27%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Kostin – Toropchenko6:30
xG 0.43–0.23 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Neal – Bozak – Walker11:06
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Sundqvist – Barbashev10:26
xG 0.31–0.59 (34%)attempts 6–12goals 2–2
- Saad – Kyrou – Thomas11:40
xG 0.43–1.09 (28%)attempts 11–19goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug4:14
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Scandella – Krug12:41
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Bortuzzo – Perunovich9:45
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).