Sun, Jan 16, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Vancouver Canucks 4, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 016 | 38 | 18 | 432 |
| WSH | 111 | 011 | 111 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:31WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 0:33VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Bo Horvat, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 4:48VANElias PetterssonAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Nils Hoglander · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 18:50VANBo HorvatPPGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 6:22WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 19:02VANJ.T. MillerENAssists: Brock Boeser, Tanner Pearson · Tip-in, 0.78 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:53VANTyler Motte: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 19:51WSHNic Dowd: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:36WSHMatt Irwin: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:36WSHMatt Irwin: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:36VANKyle Burroughs: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:36VANKyle Burroughs: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:17WSHGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:55VANTanner Pearson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:53WSHGarnet Hathaway: Elbowing2 min
- P3 15:14WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Pearson – Boeser14:28
xG 1.00–0.41 (71%)attempts 22–8goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Dickinson – Podkolzin6:02
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Horvat – Pettersson – Hoglander11:36
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Motte – Lammikko – Highmore12:38
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoolman – Hughes14:11
xG 0.72–0.42 (63%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson16:52
xG 0.76–0.62 (55%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes3:26
xG 0.19–0.16 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Wilson – McMichael7:09
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway11:24
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson3:04
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Sprong – Leason4:26
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – van Riemsdyk10:33
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Schultz – Orlov7:19
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Schultz – Fehérváry4:15
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).