Sat, Feb 19, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 115 | 213 | 112 | 440 |
| WPG | 05 | 011 | 28 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:17EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 7:46EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 10:50EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 10:45WPGAdam LowrySHAssists: Dominic Toninato, Connor Hellebuyck · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 14:38WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 19:57EDMDarnell NurseENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.43 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:28EDMBrendan Perlini: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:58EDMZach Hyman: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:57WPGDominic Toninato: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:48EDMZach Hyman: Holding2 min
- P2 10:11WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
- P2 15:52EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:21WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:38WPGEvgeny Svechnikov: Interference2 min
- P3 7:38WPGEvgeny Svechnikov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:12EDMDerek Ryan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:55EDMKailer Yamamoto: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:10EDMZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:10WPGJosh Morrissey: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Yamamoto10:55
xG 1.13–0.62 (65%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – McLeod8:33
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele – Ryan6:07
xG 0.02–0.21 (9%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Lagesson6:53
xG 0.41–0.07 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ceci – Niemelainen3:09
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nurse13:57
xG 0.95–0.84 (53%)attempts 18–18goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Harkins – Reichel8:09
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Toninato – Poganski – Svechnikov3:22
xG 0.06–0.10 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Connor – Dubois – Vesalainen9:22
xG 0.20–0.41 (32%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stastny – Scheifele10:02
xG 0.45–0.81 (36%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey11:43
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey2:04
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Stanley10:05
xG 0.14–0.32 (31%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).