Mon, Jan 17, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 3, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 216 | 07 | 112 | 335 |
| STL | 210 | 212 | 17 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:05NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:50NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 16:09STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Brayden Schenn, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 17:47STLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Torey Krug · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 0:59STLBrayden SchennAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 5:19STLIvan BarbashevGWGAssists: Justin Faulk, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 11:33NSHYakov TreninAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Philippe Myers · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 17:25STLBrayden SchennAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.15 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:22STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:51STLRobert Bortuzzo: Kneeing2 min
- P1 10:46STLRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:46NSHBen Harpur: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:01NSHMark Borowiecki: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:19NSHMatt Benning: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:21STLDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P3 8:44STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Cousins – Kunin10:20
xG 0.88–0.48 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot10:57
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- McCarron – Tolvanen – Tomasino6:46
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg12:08
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Benning5:52
xG 0.82–0.15 (85%)attempts 11–1goals 1–1
- Josi – Myers4:48
xG 0.58–0.07 (90%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Myers8:08
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Schenn – Barbashev10:55
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 4–0
- Bozak – Sundqvist – Kostin7:49
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Perron – Saad – Brown9:49
xG 0.28–0.84 (25%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Kyrou – Thomas10:01
xG 0.33–0.95 (26%)attempts 6–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Bortuzzo – Scandella8:42
xG 0.22–0.65 (25%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Parayko – Mikkola16:40
xG 0.32–0.77 (29%)attempts 9–15goals 2–2
- Faulk – Krug18:16
xG 0.92–1.44 (39%)attempts 16–23goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).