Mon, Jan 17, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Minnesota Wild 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 112 | 216 | 04 | 0 | 340 |
| COL | 216 | 08 | 111 | 03 | 1 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:57COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 17:39COLAlex NewhookAssists: Samuel Girard, Andre Burakovsky · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 0:33MINKevin FialaAssists: Matt Boldy · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 6:46MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Mathew Dumba · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 16:28COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 17:09MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 3. MIN Kevin Fiala stopped
- 4. COL Mikko Rantanen scored
- 5. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
Penalties (15)
- P1 15:19MINBrandon Duhaime: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:35MINRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:52MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:45COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:53COLKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:53MINJordan Greenway: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:53COLKurtis MacDermid: Instigator2 min
- P2 8:53COLKurtis MacDermid: Misconduct10 min
- P2 8:53MINJordan Greenway: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:17MINRyan Hartman: Delaying game2 min
- P2 18:36COLJack Johnson: Holding2 min
- P3 1:18MINMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:18COLNathan MacKinnon: Holding2 min
- P3 9:18MINAlex Goligoski: Embellishment2 min
- P3 9:18COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Fiala – Boldy9:53
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Foligno – Rask – Greenway7:28
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov12:31
xG 0.73–0.61 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Duhaime – Dewar – Sturm5:55
xG 0.48–0.37 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Addison11:47
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Kulikov16:05
xG 0.85–0.78 (52%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
- Benn – Dumba14:15
xG 0.23–0.73 (24%)attempts 13–21goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Compher – Aube-Kubel – Newhook6:10
xG 0.03–0.04 (41%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Jost – Maltsev – Sherwood3:37
xG 0.02–0.16 (11%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:11
xG 0.88–1.03 (46%)attempts 22–16goals 1–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – O'Connor10:32
xG 0.05–0.39 (12%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Makar4:47
xG 0.59–0.11 (84%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Toews2:11
xG 0.18–0.01 (96%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Johnson – Johnson4:57
xG 0.00–0.16 (2%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).