Mon, Jan 17, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 218 | 311 | 537 |
| VGK | 37 | 06 | 013 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:43VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 12:12VGKEvgenii DadonovAssists: Mark Stone, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 19:30VGKNicolas RoyPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–3
- P2 6:56PITJason ZuckerPPAssists: Jeff Carter, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–3
- P2 7:45PITTeddy BluegerAssists: Brian Boyle, Mike Matheson · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 0:28PITJason ZuckerAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 2:12PITJake GuentzelGWGUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 18:52PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Jeff Carter, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.65 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:43VGKMichael Amadio: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:38PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:39PITBrian Boyle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:22VGKMattias Janmark: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:02VGKNicolas Roy: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Rodrigues – Simon10:35
xG 1.01–0.13 (88%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Malkin – Zucker – Kapanen11:50
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
- Boyle – Blueger – McGinn10:03
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel10:58
xG 0.66–0.72 (48%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ruhwedel10:15
xG 0.89–0.27 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin18:17
xG 0.94–0.86 (52%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Pettersson – Marino12:11
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Amadio – Patrick6:47
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Stone – Stephenson11:34
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 10–5goals 2–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:04
xG 0.43–0.73 (37%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Janmark – Kolesar – Roy9:13
xG 0.61–0.93 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Theodore4:34
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – McNabb13:13
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Hutton – Whitecloud5:04
xG 0.12–0.11 (51%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).